Strategies: The good, The bad , and The ugly

this is a discussion board devoted to the questions of "what went wrong?", "what went right?", and"what the hell was i thinking?".
i'll start,
never ..and i repeat never allow the russians to have the "lend lease" advantage.("what was i thinking?")

in "pacific", if you are japan trying for india or australia is suicide IMHO, better to feign an eminent attack on india (hopefully your opponent will pull back in defense), then turn and resupply, strengthen and hold all the south east pacific "big ipc" isles and wait for america to fall prey to your kamikazes.japan would not stand a chance were it not for the 22 victory point win option( thats why the designers put it in....use it.).it worked for me ,of course it was my first game so take that into consideration.

In Pacific, don't wait for U.S to build up a big navy; attack Japan where and when you can, it's not like the U.S. can't afford it. Americas #1 priority should be to get bombers within range of Tokyo. U.K.'s 12 ipc's should almost always go to India.

Revised: if playing the U.S. ; 2 transports,2 tanks, 2 infantry, 1 fighter to NW Africa as long as you can keep it up. (seems to work)

Operation Sealion. The two words bring to mind a bold German attack of England that never occurred during World War II. In Axis and Allied Revised, using the out of the box rules, what are the chances of a successful Sealion invasion of the United Kingdom? Assuming Russia does not send a fighter to England, thus denying it the ability to attack West Russia or Ukraine, there are three possible options to consider.
1) Germany attempts it without long range aircraft
2) Germany tries for long range aircraft and Russia takes out the fighter in Ukraine
3) Germany tries for long range aircraft and Russia does not kill the Ukrainian fighter

Scenario 1: Overall 3.48% chance of success
Without long range aircraft to enable more supporting fighter planes this plan has the worst chance of victory. Only a crazy person would try this.
German Attack: Inf, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb
English Defense: 2 Inf, Rtl, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA

Scenario 2: Overall 38.58% chance of success
First we have to work with only the 76.74% of the time that the 8 Tech Dice actually acquire Long Range Aircraft. I mean you could continue the other 23.26% of the time you missed but 23.26% times 3.48% only adds a measly .81% to the overall success rate anyway so I would assume anyone who failed the Tech Roll would abandon any thoughts of Sealion and try to salvage the game. So 76.74% times the success rate of the below battle of 50.28% gives you a poor 38.58% chance of successfully capturing England. However this is the most likely chance of success because most Allied Players are going to attack the Ukraine on R1.
German Attack: Inf, Arm, 5 Ftr, Bmb
English Defense: 2 Inf, Rtl, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA

Scenario 3: Overall 52.60% chance of success
Again we have to work with only the 76.74% of the time that the 8 Tech Dice actually acquire Long Range Aircraft. So 76.74% times the success rate of the below battle of 68.54% gives you a decent 52.60% chance of successfully capturing England. This increase certainly justifies why Russia should attack the Ukraine on R1.
German Attack: Inf, Arm, 6 Ftr, Bmb
English Defense: 2 Inf, Rtl, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA

(All above computations assume the UK bomber is destroyed just before the fighters)

Most good Players would not risk 40 IPC on a 1 in 3 chance of a quick victory. In fact I doubt many would risk 40 IPC for even the 52% chance, but if Players were of unequal ability it could very well be worth the gamble for a weaker Axis Player. Of course the above computations do not take into account the fact that even though the United Kingdom can be frustrated in recapturing the United Kingdom 88.89% of the time there is no way to stop the 99.83% chance the United States has of liberating it. Of course it would be a reasonable argument to assume the Germans would be able to recapture it again on G3 or that now with Long Range Aircraft and England?s initial money of 30 the game is over anyway.

So my advice? I doubt any strong Player would want to give anyone a chance to beat them 52% of the time so ALWAYS TAKE OUT UKRAINE and personally I wouldn?t even want to give anyone the 38% chance but there is no reasonable way to stop that. Bummer

Good Luck and Good Gaming!!!

In AAEurope:
The infantry push mechanic toward Russia seems like it might work ,if your navy doesn't sink before stalling Britian and the U.S. for at least a turn or 2.

Andrew,
If Russia say, just does a build up of more troops(buying 8 inf), they move some more expensive pcs around trying bump up odds on a massive assualt torwards them, and close their 1st rnd with no attacks.
Next, in theory, Germany could launch a all out 1st strike on GB. They could take out naval vessels around the Isles and then use its only transport close and attempt landing. I estimate it would take just about all available air units it starts with and will lose nearly all but, I believe there is a small chance at taking GB in 1st RND of game. I am using 2ndEd rules by looking at this. Do you think it is possible? Not to mention if you lose this rnd you will be fighting a defensive war rest of game. But if it can be done, it will jump start the Axis.

Gerald

Operation Sealion. The two words bring to mind a bold German attack of England that never occurred during World War II. In Axis and Allied Revised, using the out of the box rules, what are the chances of a successful Sealion invasion of the United Kingdom? Assuming Russia does not send a fighter to England, thus denying it the ability to attack West Russia or Ukraine, there are three possible options to consider.
1) Germany attempts it without long range aircraft
2) Germany tries for long range aircraft and Russia takes out the fighter in Ukraine
3) Germany tries for long range aircraft and Russia does not kill the Ukrainian fighter

Scenario 1: Overall 3.48% chance of success
Without long range aircraft to enable more supporting fighter planes this plan has the worst chance of victory. Only a crazy person would try this.
German Attack: Inf, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb
English Defense: 2 Inf, Rtl, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA

Scenario 2: Overall 38.58% chance of success
First we have to work with only the 76.74% of the time that the 8 Tech Dice actually acquire Long Range Aircraft. I mean you could continue the other 23.26% of the time you missed but 23.26% times 3.48% only adds a measly .81% to the overall success rate anyway so I would assume anyone who failed the Tech Roll would abandon any thoughts of Sealion and try to salvage the game. So 76.74% times the success rate of the below battle of 50.28% gives you a poor 38.58% chance of successfully capturing England. However this is the most likely chance of success because most Allied Players are going to attack the Ukraine on R1.
German Attack: Inf, Arm, 5 Ftr, Bmb
English Defense: 2 Inf, Rtl, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA

Scenario 3: Overall 52.60% chance of success
Again we have to work with only the 76.74% of the time that the 8 Tech Dice actually acquire Long Range Aircraft. So 76.74% times the success rate of the below battle of 68.54% gives you a decent 52.60% chance of successfully capturing England. This increase certainly justifies why Russia should attack the Ukraine on R1.
German Attack: Inf, Arm, 6 Ftr, Bmb
English Defense: 2 Inf, Rtl, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA

(All above computations assume the UK bomber is destroyed just before the fighters)

Most good Players would not risk 40 IPC on a 1 in 3 chance of a quick victory. In fact I doubt many would risk 40 IPC for even the 52% chance, but if Players were of unequal ability it could very well be worth the gamble for a weaker Axis Player. Of course the above computations do not take into account the fact that even though the United Kingdom can be frustrated in recapturing the United Kingdom 88.89% of the time there is no way to stop the 99.83% chance the United States has of liberating it. Of course it would be a reasonable argument to assume the Germans would be able to recapture it again on G3 or that now with Long Range Aircraft and England?s initial money of 30 the game is over anyway.

So my advice? I doubt any strong Player would want to give anyone a chance to beat them 52% of the time so ALWAYS TAKE OUT UKRAINE and personally I wouldn?t even want to give anyone the 38% chance but there is no reasonable way to stop that. Bummer

Good Luck and Good Gaming!!!

Gerald,

It can be done but the odds are definitely not good.

By the way, I was discussing Axis and Allis Revised (also known as 4th Edition). I think you are talking about Axis and Allies (also known as Axis and Allis Classic, Axis and Allis Original, Axis and Allies 1984 and Axis and Allies 2nd Edition) because you mention 8 infantry and that is the standard first round buy for Russia Turn One. The numbers are different but let us assume a Russia Restricted game. I don?t think in any game where Russia is allowed to attack they would ignore the Baltic Sea even if they didn?t attack the Ukraine, Finland, or Eastern Europe per your example.

One big issue is getting long range aircraft. In Axis and Allies 2nd Edition you don?t get to roll for a specific Technology as you do in revised thus if you roll 6 Tech die (the most you could buy) the odds of getting at least one technology is 66.50%. Acquiring a second technology is 26.32% and hitting three technologies is 6.23%. So since you need a specific technology the first technology acquired has a 11.04% chance of succeeding (66.50% x 16.66% i.e. 1 in 6) the second would be 5.26% (26.32% x 20% i.e. 1 in 5) and the third one comes in at 1.56% (6.23% x 25% i.e. 1 in 4) for a grand total of just 17.86% of researching Long Range Aircraft on round 1. I am not sure I would spend all my money on a mere 17.86% chance. In addition you have to assume the Russians are going to send at least the submarine to the North Sea so you are going to need those fighters to destroy the British / Russian Fleet. I have seen some people send the transport to Eastern Canada but I will assume all Russian ships to the North Sea.

So we take the three fighters that can?t get to the British Isles anyway and use them and the two submarines to knock out the Allied Fleet.
Sea Battle: 2 SS, 3 Ftr vs 2 Trn, SS, BB = 93% chance of at least destroying the fleet which is all you need and having your German transport survive.
Land Battle: 2 Inf, 2 Ftr, Bmb vs 2 Inf, Arm, 2 Ftr, Bmb, AA = 7.15%
I am assuming the UK bomber to be the first casualty as the Allied Player would probably be happy to sacrifice the bomber to help in winning the battle.

Therefore your overall odds of capturing England on Turn 1 are a mere 6.65% (7.15% x 93%). Ummm, you gotta be crazy to try this in my opinion.

In Europe, it appears that the fall of Leningrad on G1 is a necessity.To that end, placement of a "free" transport off the northern coast of Germany assures the sacking of Leningrad even if the Allies give all the "free" money to Russia to place 4 more infantry there. The battle would of course require German air forces to win and would look something like:

Lenningrad: 6 inf, 1 aa
German strike force: 2 inf, 2 art, 3 ftr, 1 bmbr.
This should leave the german player in control of Leningrad with 1 or 2 art.And with a loss of 2 inf , mabe 1 art, maybe 1 ftr.All other aircraft should be able to fly home.

Anyway, thats just so you all know my opening next time we play Europe.

It looks like we have been doing the same thing since our last game Dennis, playing AA Europe. I actually have found that the Germans seem virtually unbeatable without taking Leningrad (80% chance of victory or better). I must be playing the Allies wrong somehow.